The economy as a factor in motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides
Identifieur interne : 00DA37 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 00DA36; suivant : 00DA38The economy as a factor in motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides
Auteurs : Donald W. Reinfurt [États-Unis] ; J. Richard Stewart [États-Unis] ; Nancy L. Weaver [États-Unis]Source :
- Accident Analysis and Prevention [ 0001-4575 ] ; 1991.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Arima, Arima model, Control variables, Current population reports, Current population survey, Data book, Data series, Dependent variables, Dummy variables, Econ, Economic activity, Economic factors, Economic indicators, Economic variables, Exogenous component, Fatality, Fatality series, Fatality trends, First differences, Health statistics, Homicide, Industrial production, Labor force, Motor vehicle, Motor vehicle accidents, Motor vehicle crashes, Motor vehicle fatalities, National center, National highway traffic safety administration, Nonlabor, Nonlabor force, Other types, Partyka, Partyka model, Population data, Proc arima, Random disturbance, Regression models, Risk distribution, Simple models, Speed limit, Squared errors, Standard errors, Structural time series, Subpopulation, Suicide rates, Time series analysis, Time series models, Total popuiation, Total population, Traffic deaths, Traffic fatalities, Trend component, Various subpopulations, Vehicle miles, White females, White males, Yearly data, Yearly values.
Abstract
Abstract: The effect of the economy as reflected by employment and unemployment rates on motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides is examined using several national databases. First, regression models are fit to these fatality data—overall as well as for a variety of agerace-gender subgroups. Then time series models—autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and structural time series analysis—were fit to the data, both with and without the economic indicators, to examine the relative ability of the models to forecast subsequent fatalities. No evidence was found using any of the modeling techniques that knowledge of yearly values of rates of employment, unemployment, and nonlabor force leads to improved forecasts of the level of motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, or homicides in the total U.S. population or within various subpopulations of interest.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/0001-4575(91)90065-D
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<term>Data book</term>
<term>Data series</term>
<term>Dependent variables</term>
<term>Dummy variables</term>
<term>Econ</term>
<term>Economic activity</term>
<term>Economic factors</term>
<term>Economic indicators</term>
<term>Economic variables</term>
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<term>Fatality trends</term>
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<term>Homicide</term>
<term>Industrial production</term>
<term>Labor force</term>
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<term>Motor vehicle crashes</term>
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<term>Traffic fatalities</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: The effect of the economy as reflected by employment and unemployment rates on motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides is examined using several national databases. First, regression models are fit to these fatality data—overall as well as for a variety of agerace-gender subgroups. Then time series models—autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and structural time series analysis—were fit to the data, both with and without the economic indicators, to examine the relative ability of the models to forecast subsequent fatalities. No evidence was found using any of the modeling techniques that knowledge of yearly values of rates of employment, unemployment, and nonlabor force leads to improved forecasts of the level of motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, or homicides in the total U.S. population or within various subpopulations of interest.</div>
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